April 17, 2009

Channel Speak: Worrying About the Future

I was at lunch yesterday with a friend of mine that is an accountant.  That's his profession; his passion is worrying.  He worries about the economy, and he worries about his clients, and he worries about what to tell his clients regarding the economy.

"All my clients want to know the same thing; they want to know the future.  I'm not a fortuneteller, Taylor.  I can't tell them what's going to happen tomorrow.  What are they thinking?  I'm in a special club for economic insiders?  ‘You're a money guy', they tell me. ‘You have to see us through this nightmare.'  Why don't they see for themselves?  Sometimes, things are pretty obvious.  All you have to do is look."

Judging by my friend's terse delivery and defensive stance, the economic crisis is having a noticeable effect on accountants that worry.  The crisis is having an effect on the Channel, too.  Unfortunately, there is little that the Channel or the general public can do about the current economic situation (other than embrace the values and discipline of our grandparents' generation).  However, there are other things for the Channel to fear; things for which we can prepare...

Looking into the future, it is not too hard to identify some trends that will impact the Channel.  For example, the predictable downsizing of devices will certainly impact the Channel.  I think there will always be a lot of people who will want some form of desktop, but notebooks and netbooks are examples of the way most people prefer to compute nowadays - with mobility.  These handheld and embedded devices will be manufactured in massive quantities at factories or plants.  This does not bode well for system builders; however, there will always be a need for customization and service expertise.  It's the same tune that industry magazines have been singing to us for years; "service is a growth industry" and everyone needs to grow.  When the product itself becomes commoditized (like the PC), the only real margin left for the Channel to capture is in servicing the device.

Another trend that could have either positive or negative impact on the Channel is convergence.  It seems like we're already converged; with VoIP piggybacking my Internet connection, I can talk while I Twitter, pay bills and watch TV - all on my PC.  And this is only the beginning; the service opportunities for device setup, enabling, and customization are there for the Channel to win.

Convergence represents a second opportunity for the Channel.  Convergence implies the coming together of all things data related.  And when digital access to all the ‘wants and needs' of these millions of people is finally achieved, there will be a universal need for hardened personal security.  As our world becomes more digitally-dependent, the threats become more real and their potential impact more unsettling.  People will want their security systems audited, they will want them updated regularly, and they will want choices (hardware or software firewall, household authentication server, encrypted backup, etc.).  No one is better equipped or positioned to deliver the comfort sought by these users than the Channel.

There are many perspectives and opinions regarding the future of the IT Channel.  There is plenty to worry about - if that is your habit.  If you prefer to look on the bright side of things, there is plenty of opportunity for those who embrace inevitable Change.

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